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First Hill Trust Company Weekly Bulletin December 18th, 2023

01.10.2024

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Topographical Lines.

Hello and Happy Holidays,

Last week, the S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded their seventh consecutive week of gains—the longest streak for the S&P 500 since 2017. The gains lifted the first two benchmarks to 52-week highs and the Dow to an all-time record. Continuing a recent pattern, the week’s gains were also broadly based, with the Russell 2000 Index surging 5.55% and out of bear market territory (down 20% or more) for the first time in over 20 months.

For this week, I have attached an article from our partners at JP Morgan on the FED rate cycle. In its final 2023 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to maintain the Federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%, signaling the end of interest rate hikes for the current cycle. The committee's dovish stance acknowledged a slowing economy and easing inflation trends. The FOMC emphasized confidence in a continued disinflation trend, and Chairman Powell indicated that current policy rates are considered restrictive. Investors welcomed the news, leading to equity gains and lower yields. The balance of risks in 2024 is now seen as tilted towards the impact of higher rates on growth and labor markets, rather than inflation, suggesting the potential for a soft landing in the U.S. economy next year.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/...

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